Replacing Humans With AI at Work?

The humble electronic calculator is mentioned as one of the most controversial technologies introduced to schools. Concerns were raised that it would hinder students’ acquisition of key mathematical competencies, while at the same time it was clear that students couldn’t be prevented from using calculators to solve homework.

The state of Connecticut in the USA in 1986 mandated (not “permitted,” but “mandated”) the use of calculators in school. The reasoning was extremely interesting. The appropriate regulatory body determined that while competencies in multiplying three-digit numbers might weaken, this technology would enable students to solve more difficult mathematical problems. According to 2002 research, students using graphing calculators achieved significantly better results on the SAT (standardized test for US high school students) than those who used regular calculators or those who didn’t use them at all.

Let’s leave the school and look at business.

If you look at the difference in the scope of duties of a former clerk (almost exclusively calculating income and expense ledgers) and a modern accountant, you can clearly see what the calculator and its subsequent versions (up to the spreadsheet) actually gave: the ability to solve more complex problems, because you don’t waste time on tasks that a machine can successfully perform.

Why am I writing about this? Because the calculator analogy is a good model for business owners regarding how AI will affect the nature and scope of the services or products they offer in the long term.

If you think about the evolution of work, professions based on operating abstractions (e.g., our accountant) move along the “complexity” axis, while those based on operating objects (e.g., a farmer) move along the “energy expenditure” axis. Technology allows the former to perform more difficult/complex tasks, and the latter to perform heavier ones.

Thinking in terms of “savings” is short-term (good for starters, but short-term). In the longer term, AI will be a force transforming companies toward increasingly complex processes. And this probably doesn’t mean getting rid of people.